by With the college football regular season now in the rearview mirror, it’s time for me to reflect upon where I went right and wrong in terms of the preseason team win total wagers I made. Let’s jump into it.
Losers
USC OVER 9.5 wins
I will be the first to admit that I took the USC bait before the season started and boy was I wrong. Everyone knew that there was one barrier preventing the Trojans from reaching a CFP and winning the conference and that is defense. USC remarkably somehow regressed under Alex Grinch as they finished with the 119th ranked defense in the FBS and surrendered 419 total points — the worst in program history.
Obviously the offense still had some firepower behind Caleb Williams’ encore season and a handful of elite weapons on the perimeter, but offensive line woes hindered their production as Williams was sacked 7.3% of the time (89th in FBS). Riley is still a great coach, but big adjustments are a necessity once the Trojans compete in a more physical conference in the Big Ten next season.
Clemson OVER 9.5 wins
The Tigers were underwhelming this season to say the least as the projected ACC champs finished 8-4 with all four losses coming against conference opponents.
I thought the Garrett Riley hire at OC would rejuvenate this offense and take Cade Klubnik to the next level, but the offense seemed to be the weak spot of this team. The defense was sturdy and the Tigers caught fire late, winning their final four games, but Dabo took an odd decline as the head man in Clemson. Not what I expected.
Oregon State OVER 8.5 wins
This wager not hitting sucked because the Beavers were exactly who I thought they would be in 2023 — very competitive in a loaded Pac 12 conference. Like many, I also didn’t expect Arizona to be as good as they were this season, which was the one loss that prevented Oregon State from hitting the over 8.5.
A solid year for a solid program that will now flip the page under new coaching with Jonathan Smith headed to East Lansing next year.
Winners
NC State OVER 6.5 wins
It was always the over on the Wolfpack win total! One of the easiest preseason wagers to hit, NC State cruised to nine wins behind elite defensive play and getting hot at the tail end of the year.
While the Brennan Armstrong experiment failed at the quarterback position, the Wolfpack still pulled away with big home wins over Clemson, Miami, and UNC. As mentioned, defense was the silver lining for NC State as the unit led the ACC with 2.1 takeaways per game (3rd in FBS) and held its final five opponents to an average of 15.4 PPG while pulling away with victories in each game.
This is now head coach Dave Doeren’s eighth winning season in Raleigh. Certainly one of the more underrated programs in the land who’s aiming to capture 10 wins for the first time since 2002.
Texas A&M UNDER 8.5 wins
Seven wins isn’t terrible in SEC country, but it definitely won’t fly in College Station. Just ask Jimbo Fisher.
The Aggies started off 4-1 entering the Alabama game before the wheels fell off and the heart of the schedule wore them out. Losing QB Conner Weigman for the season was a tough blow but the overall talent and upgrade at OC with Bobby Petrino still couldn’t get this team over the hump.
A&M lost six of seven games by one possession last season and three of five this season. It’s hard to buy in to a program that consistently fails to win the big ones, and it won’t get easier with Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference in 2024. Perhaps Mike Elko is the answer they finally need.
Cincinnati UNDER 5.5 wins
Not to toot my own horn, but I read this win total perfectly. I said before the season started that Cincinnati sort of panicked when hiring Scott Satterfield, who underperformed in multiple years at Louisville, and so far it’s sure seems that way. Factor in new player personnel, a new system, and competing in a more challenging conference, and the Bearcats did not come close to sniffing six wins.
Cincinnati only earned one Big 12 win, which happened to be over former AAC counterpart Houston, and got outscored by an average of 16.6 PPG in their eight other Big 12 games.
Oklahoma State OVER 6.5 wins
Mike Gundy reasserted himself as a top-10 coach in the nation behind one hell of a 9-3 season and a conference championship berth. The Pokes have been hot and cold this year with pivotal wins over OU and Kansas State and ugly losses to South Alabama and UCF, but they surged above the 6.5 projected wins.
Oklahoma State made of the most of what it had talent and coaching wise, and is now at the brink of hitting 10+ wins for the eighth time in the Gundy era.
Penn State OVER 9.5 wins
Penn State is going to Penn State: beat the crap out of everyone on the schedule except for the two losses against big brothers Ohio State and Michigan. Probably the easiest preseason win total I’ve ever cashed in my life.
