by December 3, 2017 was a bad day to be a UCF fan. On that day a little over six years ago, the 12-0 undefeated Knights were left out of the CFP Playoff, striking an uproar that led UCF faithful to self-claim themselves as “2017 National Champions.”
Flash forward to today and head coach Gus Malzahn has put the program in a position to legitimately become a playoff team as a member of the Big 12. While a 6-7 record isn’t appealing, UCF was the only conference newcomer to reach a bowl game, let alone be competitive, in 2023.
So, looking ahead to 2024, with Texas and Oklahoma fleeing the Big 12, it’s fair to say that the conference is wide open. Way-too-early front runners are Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, and Oklahoma State. One could even throw West Virginia into the mix after the Mountaineers capped off an impressive 9-4 season. But why not UCF?
Malzahn did a terrific job restocking his talent and making some noise in the offseason recruiting cycle. Not only does UCF boast the second-best 2024 recruiting class in Big 12, but the Knights also finished with the 27th-best transfer portal class behind 15 new additions, including former Arkansas dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson.
If Jefferson is “the guy,” he will have a great offensive nucleus around him in Orlando to the likes of running back RJ Harvey and wide receiver Kobe Hudson. One of the most explosive running backs in the country, Harvey rushed for 1,291 yards (10th in FBS), averaged 108 YPG on the ground, and led the country with runs of 60+ yards in 2023. Hudson emerged as the clear WR1 this past season and saw a big uptick in usage, posting a solid 44-900-8 line on the year. Defensively, the Knights return a handful of production, including All-Big 12 Honorable Mentions DB Demari Henderson and DT Malachi Lawrence.
Now the schedule…
In all likelihood, there’s a very good chance the Knights start off 4-0. TCU is clearly a shadow of its 2022 self and Colorado will need a lot for a drastic turnaround in Year 2 under Deion. UCF is also 8-2 in non-conference regular season games under Malzahn.
The games in which UCF will be on its heels falls at Florida (hostile road environment) and against Arizona, even with head coach Jedd Fisch leaving for Washington. Of course, there will be a trap game or two, whether it be at Iowa State and/or West Virginia, but there’s a chance we see a 9-2ish UCF team entering Utah week in what will be a Friday night game in the Knights’ backyard.
Even if its record is imperfect and UCF finishes 10-2, a conference title will practically cement the Knights in the playoff. Denying a Power Five/Big 12 champ from the 12-team playoff is far from a reality in this new format, which is the beauty of the playoff expansion. If the Knights’ talent pans out and this team can find a spark at the right time, they’re a good sleeper team to sneak into the playoff.
Will the path to the playoff be easy in 2024? Certainly not. But it will be a lot clearer than that 2017 season. You heard it here first.
