by The annual calendar has already flipped to the month of June, which means that the college football season is knocking on the door. At this point in the year, I’ll begin unravelling my best preseason predictions, storylines, betting wagers, and more to preview what’s in store for the 2024 campaign.
Today, I want to break down a team who I’m particularly higher on than most entering 2024: Nebraska.
So, what do I mean when I say “get over the hump”? Well, for starters, let me be clear that the phrase applies differently to certain program across the country. For instance, last preseason there was a strong consensus that in order for Texas to “get over the hump,” the Longhorns needed to win the Big 12 and be a final-four team — which, of course, they did. To hold those same standards to a program like Nebraska — who hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 — would be outrageous.
With that being said, when I say that Nebraska will “get over the hump” in 2024, I mean that this team will snap that dreaded losing-season streak by perhaps winning eight-to-nine games, gain conference relevance, and show progression in year two under head coach Matt Rhule. Here’s why Nebraska is a team to watch this fall.
The Offense
If there has been one missing piece on the Nebraska offense over the years, it’s a dynamic quarterback. Nebraska might have just solved the puzzle after picking up five-star prospect Dylan Raiola this past winter. The No. 7 overall prospect in the Class of 2024, Raiola becomes the highest-rated recruit in the history of the program and there’s no question he’s an upgrade at the quarterback position. Heinrich Haarberg was a good runner, but he was a raw passer and was thrown into the fire as a true freshman last season, headlining an offense that averaged a Big Ten-worst 135.9 passing yards per game.
Enter Raiola, who has excellent dual-threat ability but is a golden-armed prospect with immense upside as a passer. Assuming he won’t be called upon to use his legs that much, Nebraska returns its two top running backs in Gabe Ervin Jr. and Rahmir Johnson — both of whom suffered season-ending injuries in the same game just three weeks into last season.
Of course, a coaching staff needs to give its young quarterback some weapons on the perimeter and Nebraska addressed that pressing need this past offseason. Rhule signed former All-ACC receiver Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest) and speedster Isaiah Neyor (Texas) through the portal to pair well with highly-touted four-star recruit Jacory Barney Jr. Keep your eye on rising sophomore Malachi Coleman too, as he was another notable four-star in the Rhule recruiting trail. Then there’s Thomas Fidone II, who had a promsing 2023 campaign and was once the top-rated tight end in his high school recruiting class.
The trenches will be just fine as well. Nebraska brings all five offensive linemen back, including 2023 All-Big Ten honorable mention selections in center Ben Scott and right tackle Bryce Benhart. If there is one thing to nit pick, however, it’s protecting the quarterback. Nebraska had an abysmal 10.3% sack rate in 2023 and needs to show progression when protecting a young, raw talent under center.
If pass protection and a more balanced attack can execute, the offense is positioned to score more than the 18.0 points per game they did last season.
The Defense
The bright side of last year’s disappointment of a season was that the defense was excellent. Nebraska returns seven starters on a unit that ranked in the top 15 in total defense, scoring defense, and rushing defense. The best position group on this roster belongs to the defensive line — one of the deepest units in the nation. Headlining the bunch is defensive tackle Nash Hutmacher and defensive ends Jimari Butler and Ty Robinson — all of whom earned All-Big Ten honors in 2023.
The linebacker corps is not as deep, but there’s still talent. Javin Wright tallied 51 tackles and two interceptions last season and will be a guy you see playing on Sundays down the road. MJ Sherman, who transferred from Georgia in 2022-23, showed flashes of superstardom last season, but needs to be more consistent. Rhule also scooped up former Syracuse backer Stefon Thompson in the portal to add depth to the group.
The secondary ranked 37th in passing defense last season and will have four familiar faces coming back. If there’s one name to circle, it’s cornerback Tommi Hill, who enjoyed a breakout 2023 season behind four interceptions and a Big Ten-high 13 passes defended. Hill is complimented by All-Big Ten safety Isaac Guifford, versatile nickelback Malcolm Hartzog, and safety Marques Buford Jr., who is coming off an injury suffered in 2022.
Even though the defense could force more turnovers this season (just 94th in turnover rate in 2023), they did what was asked of them in 2023. Expect the unit to be just as, if not more efficient in 2024.
Flipping the Script
There are a few things that have plagued Nebraska for years and losing tight ball games is at the top of the list. Since 2018, the Huskers are 8-30 in one-score games. While much of that is attributed to the Scott Frost-era, Nebraska was 1-5 in that category a year ago. In fact, NU lost three games by exactly three points. Can they finally catch their own breaks?
A big reason for those heartbreaking losses had to do with taking care of the football. In 2023, the Huskers were -17 in turnover margin (2nd worst in FBS) and fumbled on 4.19% of their offensive snaps. In that quartet of three-point losses, Nebraska turned the ball over 15 times! It was a serious problem that negated plenty of Nebraska drives and played a pivotal role in why they ranked 124th nationally in points per possession.
The final turning point — which is obviously far less controllable — is injuries. Call it sheer bad luck, but Nebraska could not get rid of the injury bug early on last year. As previously mentioned, runnings backs Ervin Jr. and Johnson both went down with season-ending injuries against Northern Illinois in Week 3. By Week 6, the Huskers lost their three top wide receivers. That’s all before starting offensive linemen Ethan Piper and Turner Corcoran both went down with season-ending injuries against Northwestern. Getting most of those players back at full strength is huge, so keeping everyone upright all season will be paramount. Easier said than done.
Schedule
Nebraska has the third-easiest in the Big Ten ahead of 2024 with road games at Ohio State, at USC, and at Iowa presenting the biggest challenges. While there will be other tricky games (vs. Colorado, vs. Wisconsin, vs. UCLA), there is no Oregon, Michigan, or Penn State. Aside from a massive Week 2 battle against Coach Prime and the Buffs, the non-con features UTEP and Northern Iowa. In the Big Ten, you cannot ask for a friendlier schedule break than that.
In Matt Rhule We Trust
I end this blog with discussing the man in charge of the program who will carry Cornhusker nation on his shoulders for the second-straight year. Nebraska hired Rhule because of his consistent success as a program builder and, like many blue-blood programs, time is ticking in Lincoln.
From 2013-16, Rhule went 2-10 in his first season at Temple before notching back-to-back 10-win seasons two years later. Flash forward to his days in Waco and he turned a deflated Baylor program into an 11-3 one by his third season. Following a 5-7 campaign in year one, Rhule will be called upon for improvement in his encore of a season at Nebraska.
But as much as college football is a “what have you done for me lately” world, Husker fans must exercise patience with Rhule’s new regime (at least for now). Take, for instance (I’ll use the Texas example again), Steve Sarkisian, who went 5-7 and 8-5 in first two seasons at Texas before reaching the CFP. At a program with arguably as much pressure as Texas, immediate success isn’t always the best way to draw conclusions. After all, program building takes time.
The gap between five and eight wins for this program is incredibly narrow and last season continued to prove that. For a program like Nebraska, reemerging as a national powerhouse is a patience game, but under a coach like Rhule, who is as promising of a program builder as there is at the college level, I expect the Huskers to take a big step forward in 2024. Winning those close one-score games is a starter. That could very well make or break my case for this football team.
