September 29, 2024
SEC

Why Auburn is a Year Away From Breaking Out

The Hugh Freeze ship has been smooth sailing in what will be the head coach’s second season at Auburn. Forget last year’s 6-7 finish, the Tigers have been buzzing in recent recruiting cycles and are showing all signs that they are stacking up for the future. While this season presents a lot of challenges between a rugged schedule and some question marks at key positions, I expect Auburn to improve. I also expect Auburn to be an SEC title contender 365 days from now. Here’s why.

Recruiting is Booming

Stars matter. Recruiting matters. It’s the building block of the future and a prerequisite to forming a culture within the program. And if you’re familiar with Freeze, you know that he can recruit at a very high level. He did it at Ole Miss. He even did it at Liberty. Now he’s doing it Auburn.

After picking up Alabama four-star safety Anquon Fegans this past week, Freeze has now signed four top-200 prospects in the Class of 2025 to surge their class to No. 5 nationally. Better yet, Freeze has flipped two four-stars (WR Derick Smith, DT Antonio Coleman) from the Crimson Tide to Auburn. 

While the high school recruiting has been on the uptick, so was the transfer portal haul. Don’t let Auburn’s 27th finish in 247Sports’ team transfer portal rankings fool you. The Tigers addressed key needs and added a lot of proven talent to the likes of receivers KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Penn State) and Robert Lewis (Georgia State), offensive tackle Percy Lewis (Mississippi State), and safety Jerrin Thompson (Texas) — all of whom were notable starters for their respective programs in 2023.

Opposed to what Tiger fans experienced in the Bryan Harsin era, Freeze is completely reinvigorating Auburn’s recruiting brand on a similar level to the Georgias and Texases of the conference. That’s a huge first step to creating a sleeping giant.

Best Coaching Staff in Years?

Auburn has cycled through seven offensive coordinators over the past seven seasons, which raises an obvious red flag. The only very good OC Auburn had in that span was Kenny Dillingham in 2019, who ended up packing his bags and headed to FSU the following season. Derrick Nix is next up after spending 16 years at Ole Miss, but expect Freeze to call most of the shots on Saturdays.

Defensively, it will continue to be the DJ Durkin show. Maryland scandal aside, Durkin has become one of the top defensive minds in the sport. In his two seasons as DC at Texas A&M, he had the Aggies rank top-six in total defense and top-four in scoring defense in the SEC each season despite the team finishing 5-7 and 7-6. This past year at Auburn, Durkin turned one of the SEC’s most mediocre units into a defense ranked 40th in scoring (23.4 PPG allowed) — compared to 94th (30.7 PPG) in 2023.

Oh, and don’t sleep on WR coach Marcus Davis. In what will be his second season at his alma mater, Davis has transformed into a rising star in the world of recruiting after piecing together the top wide receiver classes in program history…

Promising Young WR Corp

Freeze’s first new wave of talent at Auburn is highlighted by a dynamic true freshmen wide receiver class.

Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson feature one of, if not the top freshmen WR duo this season. Both of these blue-chip recruits (Coleman a 5-star, Thompson a 4-star) were flips under Freeze — Coleman switching from A&M to Auburn and Thompson switching from Alabama to Auburn.

Coleman is a walking human highlight reel who was the MVP of the spring game and is the most promising WR prospect in his class outside of Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith — a historic recruit. Even if Auburn’s QB play is once again subpar this season, I would still not be surprised if he eclipsed 1,000 yards as a freshman assuming he sustains a fairly high target share.

Thompson is a little more raw and has been a limited participant in fall camp, but still has as high of a ceiling as any true freshman in the nation. He’s built like an SEC receiver and moves like an SEC receiver. Fellow freshmen Malcolm Simmons (4-star) and Bryce Cain (4-star) will also mix into the young, outstanding rotation.

So, ask yourself: when was the last time Auburn had a young wide receiver room this damn good?

Consensus

If I’m an Auburn fan, I wouldn’t have as high hopes for this season compared to 2025. On the bright side, 17 starters are back and a plethora of young talent are ready to emerge. But on the downside, the quarterback situation will continue to be shaky with Payton Thorne still being “QB1” after an underwhelming 2023 season. Expect him to have a short leash if he continues to struggle early this year. Look out for true freshman Walker White (No. 8 QB in 2024 cycle) to potentially push for playing time. He’s another young star who will be a name to know ahead of the 2025 season, if not sooner.

Aside from a light non-con slate, the schedule is tough (that’s the SEC for you). A home game vs OU a week before a trip to Georgia is challenging, and so is back-to-back road games at Mizzou and Kentucky in late October. Wrap up the season with games vs A&M and at Alabama at it could just be a “bowl eligible” type of season. That’s OK and that’s a reasonable expectation as of RIGHT NOW. 

And let’s not forget that Freeze beat Saban twice and posted multiple 9+ winning seasons (NY6 bowl in each) as a head coach at Ole Miss a decade ago. He knows how to adapt, rebuild, and prepare.

Auburn will continue creeping up the SEC ladder and, if Freeze can retain the talent that he’s inherited, be a serious CFP contender in 2025.