by It’s safe to say it was a come down to earth Saturday for me last weekend as I went 2-4 and crippled my season record to 9-5. Not excellent, but not shabby. The good news is that I feel more confident about tomorrow’s slate and am ready to right a wrong. Here is this week’s card:
#4 ALABAMA AT WISCONSIN
Following a sloppy three quarters vs a talented USF team last week, Alabama is continuing to get the kinks out and work up to full strength prior to conference play. While the coaching matchup between Kalen DeBoer and Luke Fickell is close to even, the Tide are far more talented and have a run game that should gash Wisconsin’s banged up front seven and a defense that should shut down QB Tyler Van Dyke, who is a shadow of his 2021 Miami self. The Badgers are also struggling to find their identity on offense and it’s a bad time to find out against a top-five program. Fickell is a good enough coach to keep it interesting, but Bama rolls at Camp Randell.
The play: Alabama -16.5
#24 BOSTON COLLEGE AT #6 MISSOURI
A lot of people are fading the Tigers because “they haven’t played anyone yet,” but neither have the Ole Miss or Ohio States of the world. Regardless, BC has had an impressive start and have instantly become one of the most well-coached programs in the ACC with Bill O’Brien. However, despite Mizzou’s cupcake schedule up to this point, they have answered some question marks that were initially concerns in the preseason: front seven play, open-field tackling in secondary, and threats are RB. That’s not to mention they have one of the best WRs in the country, a beefed up o-line, and are at home. This is a team who I have already watched and will be seeing again in person this Saturday, and I am high on the Tigers. Maybe wait to see if the spread drops to -13.5, but it’s still a confident pick for me.
The play: Mizzou -14.5
ARKANSAS STATE AT #17 MICHIGAN
Another heavy ranked favorite who I have covering a large point spread (at least early on). Perhaps the Wolverines are in a big let down spot here, but otherwise I absolutely don’t understand why this spread isn’t up in the 30s. Arkansas State is a decent Sun Belt team with a quality QB in Jalen Raynor, but this is still a top 10 defense backed by an extremely hostile environment. Hopefully Big Blue’s morale will be up, but I see a giant first half and a “let’s pound the rock all second half and get out of here ” type of game.
The play: Michigan 1H -13.5
UCF AT TCU
UCF is one of my preseason darlings and I am riding the Gus Bus in Fort Worth this Saturday. The Knights feature one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country, anchored by QB KJ Jefferson and RBs RJ Harvey and Peny Boone. I do need to see some progress from UCF’s secondary and if Jefferson can consistently make some plays with his arm (that’s why they have WR Kobe Hudson), but TCU looked shaky against Stanford two weeks ago and is not a trustworthy team to back right now. I see a lot of points here too, so the over is a potential play as well. This will be a very fun game to watch even if you don’t have a play.
The play: UCF +2.5