by Florida at #14 Utah UNDER 44.5
QB Cam Rising is doubtful to start for the Utes as he’s continuing to recover from that ACL tear suffered in the Rose Bowl this past January. The spread dropped from Utah -6.5 to Utah -4.5, which is obviously not good. If Rising gets the green light, I’m all in on Utah but am only going to play the under for now.
I really like the under. The public does as well with the O/U plummeting from 46.5 to 44.5 overnight. Even still, Utah will not only be without its star quarterback but it’s most valuable weapon in TE Brant Kuithe too.
Along with the humid, hostile environment of The Swamp, Florida’s rushing offense was very effective in wearing down that Utah front last season; which was a big reason for the victory. But much of that was accredited to Anthony Richardson’s wheels (103 rushing yards, 3 TD) and newcomer Graham Mertz doesn’t possess that dual threat ability.
Even though Florida outplayed Utah in the trenches a season ago, the Utes’ defense was a brick wall at home last year (16th rush D in FBS) and most of that front seven returns. With that being said, the difference tonight will be Utah’s ability to feed off of that home crowd energy, shut down Florida’s rushing attack, and put the ball in Mertz’s hands and force the Gator offense to be one-dimensional through the air. In the same vein, the Florida defense should improve this year as well and knows how to get after the quarterback. Each team should be very reliant on the ground game, which obviously means chewing clock.
The wind will also be around 13-15 MPH all night in Salt Lake, so it’s going to be hard for either team to light up the scoreboard.
Under 44.5 is a solid bet (can even ALT line it to 47.5) and a great way to kick off Week 1 of the 2023 season.
P.S. This is Florida’s first non-conference road game outside of the state of Florida in 32 YEARS. I’m not touching the spread if Rising is out, but (FYI) Utah is on a 20-game home winning streak (12-1 in home openers under Kyle Whittingham). Sprinkling a little on Utah ML or parlaying it with the under isn’t a bad option either.
