by Oregon State OVER 8.5 wins (+124)
Confidence level: 8/10
Jonathan Smith is slowly bringing a once-inferior college football program into national limelight. Oregon State notched its third 10-win season in school history last year and now have all the reason in the world to feel good about themselves entering 2023.
Whenever you think of Pac-12 football, you tend to picture typical “west coast,” air-raid offenses and games that combine for 100 points on any given Saturday. Not at Oregon State. The Beaver’s philosophy is all about smash-mouth, physical football, which explains why they had a potent rushing attack and the No. 1 defense in the conference a season ago. And adding a groundbreaking transfer portal pickup under center just may be the extra jolt that legitimately puts this team in the Pac-12 title game.
In comes D.J. Uiagalelei, who is being hyped up as Oregon State’s best quarterback talent ever, to command the offense. Despite facing harsh criticism for an underwhelming tenure at Clemson, DJ enters a new offensive system that may really elevate his play style. The Beavers boast one of the top offensive lines in the country (return four starters) and a running back trio led by All-Pac-12 standout Damien Martinez to give him more of a cushion as well.
Replicating a 2022 season where the defense led the nation in red zone efficiency and allowed just 20 PPG – that’s now without seven key starters – is going to be hard. Even so, this defense won’t drastically decline, as it has a talented secondary and run-stuffing defensive line.
A lot of people fail to realize how close this team was to making a Pac-12 title in 2022. Four INTs vs. USC costed them a tight 17-14 loss at home. A go-ahead field goal by Washington with :10 remaining put the Beavers out of conference title contention in early November. Aside from an ugly loss to Utah, they won every other game. With no USC to deal with and a soft non-conference slate, the schedule is easier this season. Oregon State also hosts Utah, UCLA, and Washington before Heading South (shoutout Zach Bryan) to Eugene for its annual Civil War against the Ducks.
The DJ experiment will be the focal point of the season and maybe it’s time that we see his true colors and full potential at the college level. I mean, Bo Nix went through the same transformation last offseason and broke out at Oregon. Why not him too? Regardless, the offense should be good and not have to rely as much on its defense this season. If the Beavers can dodge any trap game losses (ex: at Washington State) and actually finish games out, this team is going to be special. Keep sleeping on them if you are because Oregon State is hammering this over.
