by Cincinnati UNDER 5.5 wins (-170)
Confidence level: 9/10
The Bearcats, who were a playoff team and Group of Five powerhouse just two seasons ago, are now under a big rebuild. Out goes Luke Fickell and in comes Scott Satterfield – a coach who never led Louisville to a season better than 8-5. Not to knock on the guy but Satterfield is not the answer and filling a guy like Fickell’s shoes is not easy. Satterfield objectively failed at Louisville, which is arguably an easier job than Cincinnati. It’s an odd hire by the Bearcats and makes you wonder if it was a desperation move.
Cincy loses a lot of production on both sides of the ball and now enters its first season as a member of the Big-12. A lot of the Bearcat’s momentum will be dictated by its non-conference matchup against Pitt in Week 2, yet I see the Panthers winning it at home. The rest of the schedule isn’t unbearable (no pun intended), as Cincy hosts two of its tougher opponents in Oklahoma and Baylor; but still, competing in a better conference with harder week-to-week stretches is a challenging adjustment. Throw in a new system and a downgrade at head coach, and topping five wins in Year 1 is unlikely. This is one of the easiest team totals you can bank on this preseason.