Liberty’s Legitimacy as a “Top-Tier” Group of Five Program

This past week I tweeted a top-five list of the easiest strength of schedules for FBS teams heading into the 2024 season. As a result, it sparked a lot of debate in the comment section involving one particular program: the Liberty Flames.

FBS programs with the easiest strength of schedule in 2024🗓️🏈

1. Florida Atlantic
2. UConn
3. Tulsa
4. Western Michigan
T-5. Liberty
T-5. Army pic.twitter.com/kCsyoxkc7k

— Gameday Journal (@GameJSports) April 2, 2024

Since joining the FBS in 2018, Liberty is coming off by far its most successful single season in program history after going 13-1 and reaching a NY6 bowl. In spite of this, a lot of opposing fanbases reverted to their “weak” schedule being the main reason for success.

The fact of the matter is that it’s hard to argue against the strength of schedule part, especially since Liberty has one of the easiest ones in the FBS since becoming a member of the C-USA. That’s inevitable to a certain extent.

However, it is undeniable that the Flames have made the most of what has been put in front of them. Some may call their success a “fluke” or point to their blowout loss against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl as a big reason why they “never belonged,” etc. But a 13-1 record in their first season in a new conference under a new head coach is hard to argue against. 

Amid an argument in one of the comment sections, 229 Flames tweeted this, which prompted me to set aside a few hours of my day to research and write this blog about how legit of Group of Five program Liberty truly is.

It would be so nice if someone did a lil bit of research into who we’ve beaten since becoming G5 like 7 years ago. We played good p5 teams and good g5 teams. But then again why would they want to give credit to Lu

— 229 Flames (@229Flames) April 2, 2024

Here are the main components that I factored into my research:

Recruiting: How talented were Liberty’s teams on an annual basis? How did their recruiting rankings compare to other G5 schools? Keep in mind, all rankings were extracted from 247 Sports who includes FCS programs a part of its overall composite list.

Strength of schedule: Instead of using preseason strength of schedule projections that are entirely based on opponent win percentage and results from the year prior, I used rankings calculated at the END of the regular season. All SOS rankings were accurately composited by TeamRankings.com.

I also threw in non-conference strength of schedule (includes bowl games), opponent win/loss % (does NOT include bowl game results for FBS opponents or any FCS opponents), best win (opponent with best résumé), worst loss (opponent with worst résumé), record vs Power Five opponents, and home and away records.

From 2018-2023, here’s what Liberty football has culminated…

Based on the stats and analytics that I chose to factor in, here’s what I came away with:

The Good

The Flames have not had a recruiting class rank higher than 88th in the nation (NEVER even recruited a player higher than a three-star) and only posted one top-25 recruiting class amongst the Group of Five (2020) since they bumped up to the FBS level. To produce a .500 record or better each year, including two double-digit win seasons, while cycling through three head coaches is no fluke and shows a lot about the program’s ability to develop players and help them reach their full potential.

In terms of scheduling, it’s evident that Liberty’s non-conference slate has objectively gotten slightly more difficult each year since 2018. In fact, since 2021 the Flames haven’t had worse than the 29th overall strength of schedule among G5 schools. It’s not great, but it’s not laughable. 

The Bad

While Liberty has played a fair non-conference schedule, the program’s combined record against P5 opponents since 2018 is 3-11. Not good. However, think about this: SMU is 2-7 vs P5 opponents in that span, while Boise State is 1-7 and Troy is 1-4. There’s not a huge disparity between them and other top-notch G5 programs in that regard by any means. 

Although, one thing that can be improved is earning more pivotal early-season non-conference road wins. Aside from the two wins at Syracuse and VT in 2020, which both took place in crowd-less stadiums due to COVID, Liberty has not had a notable true road win outside of its annual/conference opponents. Any other true road game against a non-conference foe in a hostile environment resulted in a loss. But, after all, scheduling is not necessarily up to the coaches and players.

Overall Consensus

When you get down to the nitty-gritty, Liberty is a good Group of Five program that is continuing to ascend each and every year as a member of the FBS. When you’re lurking as an independent school who’s new to the D1-A level, it’s not always easy piecing together an impressive résumé due to a lack of quality schools wanting to schedule you. And when you play in a conference as weak as the C-USA, you play who you get. But based on how Liberty has performed for what is put in front of them, they have exceeded expectations. The Flames are a top-five G5 program and one of the best in the modern era. The proof is in the pudding.

Let me know what you guys think in the comment section below!