by It’s time to finish strong in what will be my final college card of a pretty magical 2023 season. Here are some of my favorite plays for today’s massive slate to kick off the new year.
Fiesta Bowl: #23 Liberty vs #8 Oregon TT O44.5
To many people’s surprise, the Ducks are suiting up a vast majority of their star players, including Heisman finalist QB Bo Nix and All-Pac 12 WR Troy Franklin, insinuating that Oregon is ready to dominate and cap off the season on a high note. The 17.5-point spread is appetizing, but the Ducks team total is a safer play considering Liberty is explosive itself offensively and can potentially sneak a backdoor cover if it’s a shootout.
It’s simple: ANYONE can score on the Flames. Liberty surrendered 25+ points in its previous three games against *drumroll please* UMass, UTEP, and New Mexico State. They’ve also been lit up through the air this season, allowing 243.5 passing YPG (90th in FBS) while only facing two teams that rank in the top 50 in passing offense (MTSU and LA Tech). Throw in the fact that Nix will have his two biggest weapons in Franklin and Tez Johnson, and this Liberty secondary is going to be suffocated. This is a no-brainer pick here as Oregon should be able to at least put up 35 by halftime. Hammer it.
Citrus Bowl: #17 Iowa vs #21 Tennessee -4.5
While it’s been a fun, yet sloppy ride for the Iowa Hawkeyes this season, they’ve only played two good teams all year: Penn State and Michigan. The combined score of those two games? 57-0. Even though the Vols are not on the same level as either of the two, they are better than any B1G West team Iowa has seen all season.
With that being said, this is an overall bad matchup for Iowa. Josh Heupel is one of the better offensive minds in the sport, so he’ll find a way to get this Tennessee offense (ranked 17th in the FBS) to execute. Even with five-star prospect Nico Iamaleava under center for the first time as a starter, UT has the weapons and high-tempo offense built to spread this Hawkeye defense out and give them fits all game long. And we all know how this Iowa offense operates on the other side of the ball. Take the Vols with the points to kick the New Year off right.
Rose Bowl: #1 Michigan vs #4 Alabama ML
“Jim Harbaugh is 0-2 in the CFP semifinal.” That’s a sentence that has haunted Ann Arbor for a year now. An “Us Against the World” mentality has brought the Wolverines back to the playoff, but the question still remains: can Harbaugh finally get over the hump?
Michigan is perhaps the deepest team in the country. JJ McCarthy is playing the best ball of his career and is assisted by a potent run game led by explosive RB Blake Corum. Despite this, there’s one thing people need to realize. Michigan lost its All-American guard Zach Zinter in the Ohio State game, which was a devastating blow that seriously dilutes this rushing attack. In the B1G title game, Michigan only ran the ball for an average of 2.0 YPC against Iowa and, while the Hawkeyes have a stout defense, this o-line looked shaky in the trenches. So yes, no Zinter is a huge deal and these inefficiencies will be exposed against a Bama team that held Georgia to 76 rushing yards in Atlanta. Making McCarthy win the game with his arm will be the difference.
On the other hand, Alabama has gotten better and better each game. Is this your typical Crimson Tide team talent-wise? No, and we know this. However, I think that this team has caught fire at the right time. Michigan has not seen a QB as athletic or dynamic as Jalen Milroe all year, and he’s behind a Bama offensive line has drastically improved since September. Defensively, the Tide are loaded at each level and have the personnel to disrupt McCarthy in the pocket and force him to make errant throws; similar to what happened in the TCU semifinal last year. If Michigan can’t get its run game going, they are in trouble. This is also Nick Saban we’re talking about. Doubt him at your own risk.
