by My 3-1 record on the blog bets went smoothly last weekend, even though my Georgia lock went bad from the get-go. In my opinion, Week 8 is going to be one of those strange Saturdays where there’s a few closer-than-expected type of games across the board. Penn State-Ohio State headlines the weekend, but here are the five games that I love and have already wagered on.
South Carolina/Missouri O60.5
I hate the fact that 90% of the public is on the over in this one, but it’s too irresistible not to take. South Carolina is coming off a heartbreaking home loss against Florida, blowing at 10-point lead late in regulation. While Gamecock fans are hurting and so is Shane Beamer’s foot, this Carolina offense is clicking on all cylinders. On the other side of the ball, SC is allowing an FBS-worst 321.7 passing YPG and is facing one of the best passing offenses in the SEC behind QB Brady Cook and wide receivers Luther Burden III and Theo Wease. I will be shocked if we don’t see a shootout between these two on Saturday afternoon.
Northwestern at Nebraska (NW Team Total U14.5)
Neither team has been impressive this season, especially Nebraska under new HC Matt Rhule. I threw out an interesting stat in my nerd nugget blog earlier today and that’s that both programs have been about as even as they can get against one another since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. Initially, I was leaning towards taking the Wildcats with the +11.5, but one of the few things Nebraska has done very well this season is shut down bad offenses. It will be an ugly 60 minutes, so give me the Northwestern team total under here.
#13 Ole Miss at Auburn +6.5
This is a weird game and a weird spot for the Lane Train. Even though the Rebels are 5-1, they’ve been sloppy at times this season, such as the Arkansas game, and are 6-7 in SEC road games under Kiffin. Jordan-Hare is one of the most hostile environments in the country, it’s under the lights, and Hugh Freeze gets a crack at his old team.
While Auburn has one of the worst passing offenses in the country, they’ve done a tremendous job not turning the ball over (T-15 in FBS in turnover margin). As long as the Tigers can limit the explosive plays defensively and somewhat move the ball on offense, this one will go down to the wire.
#22 Air Force at Navy +10.5
This is a ‘plug your nose and let it play out’ type of bet for me but I’ll take the Midshipmen to keep it close at home. Air Force is coming off a big win over Wyoming to become ranked for the first time since 2019 and establish themselves as the Group of Five favorites. However, the Falcons will be without star QB Zac Larrier for several weeks and are traveling across the country to take on its rival at 10 AM MT. The underdog has covered in 17 of the last 20 military academy games and Navy is 4-1 at home vs Air Force since 2013. Throw the records out the window when these two teams go head-to-head. Navy covers in what will be a physical, low-scoring game in Annapolis.
Pitt at Wake Forest -1.5 (Lock)
I call this a chain reaction. Think about it: 6-0 Louisville gets its biggest home win in seven years over Notre Dame, then turns around and loses to Pitt on the road the following week. Pitt gets a huge home upset, throttling the Cardinal at home to ruin their perfect season. Now the Panthers turn the page and are a 1.5-point underdog to a gimpy Wake team that is starting its third-string QB and averaging 13.6 PPG in its last three?! Nothing about this line indicates the Panthers being the easy pick ‘em. The Demon Deacons win at home. Why? Because that’s college football for you.
