by College football Saturday is on our doorstep and the season is now in full swing. I’m avoiding a lot of the heavyweight matchups this weekend with a ten-foot pole because there’s too many rat lines in my opinion. After all, I’m just here to try and profit. They’re not the sexiest games, but I adore these four plays below. Let’s have a weekend!
Auburn at LSU -11.5
LSU has been underwhelming this season to say the least, but that shouldn’t cloud the fact that Jayden Daniels is piecing together a very good season in Baton Rouge. With the dual threat under center, I don’t see a world where Auburn’s defense gets enough stops to win this game. You also need to realize that, despite playing piss poor, this is actually a great matchup for LSU’s defense. Auburn has combined for a grand total of 203 passing yards against all three Power Five opponents they have faced this year. The Auburn passing attack is on life support and what has been the LSU defense’s kryptonite all season long? Offenses that can throw the football. Sprinkle in the fact that it’s a night game on the Bayou, and I think LSU pulls away in the second half and surges to a convincing home victory.
Ohio State -19.5 at Purdue
On the podcast yesterday, I was on the fence about taking Purdue with the points. It’s safe to say that I have completely changed my mind. Yes, may we never forget that emphatic 49-20 blowout upset Ohio State suffered back in 2018 when Rondale Moore put himself on the map, but I don’t see the “Spoilermakers” writing a cinderella story tomorrow, let alone covering the 19.5. Purdue is 1-3 ATS at home this year and is outmatched in every facet against the Buckeyes. I also don’t think OSU will be unmotivated and have its full attention on Penn State next weekend either. Believe it or not, since 2017, Ryan Day’s squad has scored at least 49 points in every game and covered in all but one in the six games prior to facing the Nittany Lions. Trust the analytics and eye test on this one.
Troy -4.5 at Army
I bet this game at -4.5 yesterday even though the line has jumped to -6.5. I’d still take the Trojans either way. Troy’s rush defense is only allowing 84 YPG, which ranks 10th in the FBS, and like most military academy teams, I don’t think Army has the offensive versatility to be able to air it out when it needs to. Ever since that tight loss to JMU, Troy has looked awfully sharp and has only been giving up 11 PPG against above average G5 offenses. A favorable matchup for this Trojan squad on the road. One of my most confident plays of the weekend.
Georgia -31.5 at Vanderbilt (Lock)
Miami bit me in the ass last week by failing to cover a huge spread behind one of the worst endings to a game we’ve ever seen, but the Canes aren’t Georgia.
Not only is Vanderbilt 0-7 ATS, but the Bulldogs have had no issue looking past the Commodores the past two years by outscoring them 117-0 in that span. Vandy is really banged up and is facing a monster of a Georgia team that is beginning to look like the back-to-back national champs that we know. Georgia wins by 40-45 points in Nashville. Don’t overthink this one.
