July 5, 2024

Dom’s Degenerate (Half) Dozen

Week two of the college football season kicked off last night with Louisville waxing Murray State 56-0 and with the number of FBS/FCS matchups, many of the games on this weekend’s slate should play out similarly. However, there are still plenty of games worth tuning into.

THE LOCKS

Obviously, there is no such thing as a lock when you are up against Vegas, but these are the picks that are as close to a sure thing as they come.

Notre Dame -7.5 (at NC State)

Notre Dame looks like the real deal this year. This week’s game against NC State will be the toughest opponent to date, but Marcus Freeman’s team is up to the task. Under Freeman, Notre Dame has had an impressive defense but is arguably the best quarterback Notre Dame has had since Jimmy Clausen. Hartman’s ability to distribute the ball to his playmakers on the outside, combined with Notre Dame’s defensive prowess, should result in a minimum two-score victory for the Fighting Irish.

Oregon -6.5 (at Texas Tech)

Bo Nix is in his fifth year as a college starter, and last year he finally lived up to that five-star rating he earned coming out of high school. Lubbock, Texas is never an easy place to go in and get a win, but Bo Nix has gotten road wins at Washington State (2022), Arkansas (2021), LSU (2021), Ole Miss (2020), Mississippi State (2020), and Texas A&M (2019), proving he can win in a hostile environment. Oregon is a potential playoff team, while Texas Tech will likely be fighting for fourth place in the Big 12. Bo Nix and the Ducks should have no problem winning by a touchdown.

THE 60/40 GAMES

There is a little more uncertainty with these games. But 60 times out of 100, this is how I see these games going.  

Appalachian State +19.0 (at North Carolina)

Last year’s meeting between the Tar Heels and the Mountaineers was a high-scoring affair, with UNC scraping by with a 63-61 victory. UNC boasts potential top-two NFL draft pick Drake Maye, but App State will be looking to keep him on the sideline with their rushing attack. Last week, UNC’s defense looked much improved from the unit that took the field last year, but App State will keep it under three scores with their ground game.

Utah -8.0 (at Baylor)

Utah heads to Waco to face a Baylor team that is reeling after last week’s loss to Texas State. Cam Rising was cleared for full practice this week, and if he suits up for the Utes on Saturday consider moving this game to the locks section. However, if he misses another week, this is still a Utah team that is more than capable of covering eight points versus Baylor. Utah was able to handle Florida last week without Cam Rising and let’s face it, Baylor is no Florida.

THE LONGSHOTS

These predictions may raise some eyebrows, but that’s the whole point. Either upset will be huge for college football and will be at the forefront of the national conversation for weeks to come.

Texas Upsets Alabama in Tuscaloosa

“Texas is finally back baby!” is what almost every Texas fan in the country has been saying for the better part of the decade, but now it’s time for the Longhorns to put up or shut up. Quinn Ewers was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school, and at times last year, he looked the part. Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell give Ewers two legitimate targets on the outside, and the rest of this Texas team is as talented as any in the country. Alabama on the other hand does not have the offensive firepower that they have had in years past. They don’t have the stable of wide receivers they had with Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, and Jerry Jeudy, nor do they have Bryce Young to bail them out as they did last year. Jalen Milroe was unimpressive in limited action last season and underwhelmed the coaching staff so much so that they brought in Tyler Buchner after spring ball. This Texas team has a legitimate shot to upset Alabama on Saturday night.

Nebraska Shocks Colorado in Boulder

What Deion Sanders has done in his brief time as the head man at Colorado has been nothing short of impressive. He went into Fort Worth and knocked off the reigning National runner-ups. Nobody would argue that this year’s TCU team is as talented as the team that knocked off Michigan in the National Semi-Final, but Colorado was still a 21-point underdog heading into last week’s contest. Colorado looked great last week, but TCU failed to take advantage of the Buffaloes’ most glaring weakness, their front seven. TCU had great success running the ball, and watch for Nebraska to look to do so as well. This game will be closer than most people expect, so don’t be surprised if Matt Rhule and Nebraska can pull this one off.

*Disclaimer: These picks are just for fun and are not gambling advice

All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, via ESPN