by From three-star high school recruit to preseason Heisman candidate, quarterback Dillon Gabriel has had quite the college journey and will finally cap off his impressive career under center in Eugene as an Oregon Duck in 2024.
The sixth-year senior, who was a two-year starter at UCF before transferring to Oklahoma from 2022-23, will enter the spotlight as the Ducks’ new signal caller, assuming he beats out former five-star and UCLA transfer Dante Moore for the starting job.
Obviously Spring ball will give us a larger sample size of how Gabriel meshes into his new offense, but for now here’s my early outlook on the southpaw quarterback and how I think he will pan out wearing the green and yellow this fall.
Oklahoma system vs Oregon system
First things first, it’s important to evaluate Gabriel’s production and overall offensive situation at Oklahoma in ex-offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s scheme in 2023 and see how it compares, contrasts, and even helps him translate to OC Will Stein’s system at Oregon.
For starters, Gabriel had the most productive season of his college career in 2023, highlighted by a career-high 172.0 passer rating (6th in FBS) and earning both Maxwell Award and Davey O’Brien Award semifinalist honors.
Schematically, Lebby’s spread offense heavily revolved around horizontal stretch plays and deep routes in the passing game, which is something that Stein also tends to draw up a lot in Eugene. This, in effect, saw Gabriel and the Sooners boast one of the most explosive passing offenses in the nation (23.4% of attempts gaining 15+ yards). For context, the Bo Nix-led Ducks ranked 11th in this metric despite posting more 30+ and 40+ yard plays than OU in 2023.
It must be noted that Gabriel did command an OU offense that had its fair share of flaws throughout last season — most of which were not nearly as apparent at Oregon.
While the Sooners did have one of the more potent passing offenses in the land, there were some noticeable setbacks at the wide receiver position. Drop issues piled up throughout the campaign, especially after star wideout Andrel Anthony went down with a season-ending knee injury halfway through the season. As a result, Oklahoma’s receiving corps posted a head-scratching 8.7% drop rate for properly placed balls, which was double that of Oregon’s 4.3%, and the national average for that matter. Some of that boils down to bad luck and fluke plays, but it was a glaring weakness in the OU passing game. I do not expect similar issues to arise in Eugene, especially with a team that provides Gabriel with an arsenal of elite playmakers on the perimeter to the likes of Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Traeshon Holden.
Second, the rushing attack was slightly below average. OU amassed a 49.4% efficient play rate and failed to garner big chunk plays on early downs because of it. Again, that’s another issue that Gabriel could see fizzle away in this Oregon offense. Similar to 2023, the Ducks present far less inefficiencies on the ground and, despite losing star tailback Bucky Irving, will feature a threatening running back tandem between Jordan James and Noah Whittington. The Ducks’ rushing attack ranked 5th in the FBS with 5.5 rushing yards per game a season ago to provide Oregon with a much more balanced attack.
Perhaps the biggest issue that lingered throughout 2023 for the Sooner offense was poor pass protection up front. According to Addicted to the Quack (SB Nation), the offensive line posted a <17% per-play error rate in pass pro, which marked Oklahoma’s worst offensive line finish in nearly a decade. In effect, Gabriel’s pass play success rate under pressure dipped to 39.5% opposed to a 61.9% rate when he was not. And, as you might guess, Oregon was superb in this metric with Nix under center in 2023, leading the FBS in a pass play success rate under pressure and QB sack percentage. While the Ducks do lose the nucleus of its offensive line in Rimington Trophy winner Jackson Powers-Johnson at center, three starters return, including potential future first round pick Josh Conerly Jr. at left tackle.
What will translate
One of the first things that jumps out about Gabriel is his experience, which is something Oregon has recently fallen in love with at the quarterback position. The sixth-year senior accumulated a staggering 1,855 career drop backs at UCF and Oklahoma. In fact, barring any injuries, Gabriel is on pace to snap Nix’s all-time FBS starts record (61) as he already has 50 under his belt entering 2024.
And, like Nix in college, with so much playing time and reps, Gabriel has only gotten better throughout the years.
There are several key reasons to love Gabriel and it all starts with his decision making. Statistically speaking, the Hawaiian tallied a dazzling 2% turnover-worthy play rate over the past two seasons (3rd in FBS among returning QBs). With that savvy decision making in the pocket, he also knows when to tuck the ball away and run it himself.
While he doesn’t necessarily fit the mold as a traditional dual-threat, Gabriel is an underrated runner. It really wasn’t until his tenure at Oklahoma when his rushing ability fully came to light, but across two seasons Gabriel averaged 3.78 yards per carry and scored 18 times on 182 carries in a Lebby offense that was fairly RPO-heavy. In the same vein, when pushed outside of the pocket, he logged 5.6 adjusted yards per play on scrambles, which is terrific. In comparison, Nix nearly had just as many rushing attempts (178) and averaged an impressive 5.20 yards per carry through two seasons in an Oregon offense that poses a similar designed run scheme in Stein’s system.
The only whisper of downside with Gabriel has to do with a shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 that forced him to miss the final nine games of his junior year at UCF. And while he also suffered a concussion in 2022 (missed one game), bear in mind that neither of these injures have affected him ever since. His durability is not a concern and should not significantly impact his upside in 2024 and beyond.
Overall Consensus
I get it, it’s too early to draw conclusions about a player who has yet to even take a single snap at a new program. But regardless, Gabriel has all of the tools and attributes to be the nation’s top quarterback in 2024, especially while being paired up with the best coaching staff and roster he’s been a part of at the college level. How Oregon will transition into big-boy football in the Big Ten is yet to be determined, but based on my analysis and overall outlook, I believe that Gabriel and Oregon is a near-perfect marriage, and one that will come to fruition five months from now.
He is my way-too-early Heisman front runner and will be the leader of an Oregon team that should remain one of the nation’s best.
