by As a college football junkie, I love nerd nuggets and cool analytics/fun facts about the sport. With that being said, here are a handful of CFB Week 8 notes or trends that I’ve either encountered or researched on my own over the past few days. Let’s dive in.
Life is Hard at Hard Rock
Mario Cristobal has yet to earn an ACC win at home (0-5). Miami hosts Clemson on Saturday night and are currently 3-point underdogs against the Tigers. On the other hand, Cristobal’s previous nine games as an underdog have been, well, interesting. Eight of the nine have been decided by 15 points or fewer, including two straight up wins. Something’s gotta give on Saturday night.
Fear Fading Gundy
Since 2015, Oklahoma State has had 30 games where the spread landed between -4 and +4. The Pokes won 24 of them and have gone 21-6-3 ATS (2-0 ATS in 2023) in that stretch. Oklahoma State is currently 3.5-point underdogs at West Virginia. Bet against Mike Gundy at your own risk.
But wait…
Contrarily, since 2010, teams who lost on game-winning hail mary plays in the regular season are 11-2 straight up the following week. WVU lost to Houston on a last-second hail mary last Thursday night.
The Battle of NU
Since 2011, Northwestern averages 24.5 PPG vs Nebraska, and Nebraska averages 25.5 PPG vs Northwestern. Both programs are 6-6 against each other since the Huskers joined the Big Ten that same year.
The “Third Saturday in October”
In what is the eighth-oldest SEC rivalry in college football history, #17 Tennessee and #11 Alabama will meet for the 105th time following that instant classic in Knoxville one year ago.
The over has hit in 7 of the last 10 matchups between the two, including the highest-scoring game in series history last season (52-49). Bama has hit the game total over in 7 of their last 13 games, while the Vols have only hit the over in 1 of their last 5 road games.
Auburn’s Offensive Woes
In its four games this year vs Power Five teams, Auburn has averaged just 15.5 PPG and only thrown for a total of 392 passing yards. They host #13 Ole Miss this Saturday in what will be a Hugh Freeze revenge game.
The Battle of the Columbias
South Carolina is allowing an FBS-worst 321.7 passing YPG on defense and travels to face Missouri, who has the 16th-best passing offense in the country, this Saturday afternoon. Tigers QB Brady Cook is averaging an SEC-high 296.8 passing YPG at home this season as well.
#16 Duke at #4 FSU
Not so fun fact: Duke has never beat Florida State (0-21 all time) and is 0-6-1 ATS vs the Noles since 2006.
Mack Attack
Mack Brown’s #10 UNC Tar Heels are the only school in America that’s faced at least five Power Five teams and beaten each one by double digits (+320 odds to win ACC).
MACtion Game of the Year
Toledo (6-1) and Miami OH (6-1) play each other this Saturday with both teams leading their respective divisions in the MAC. Despite being in the conference for over seven decades, this is their first meeting since 2011. Toledo is 2-5 ATS this season while the RedHawks are 6-1 ATS. The Rockets are currently 2.5-point favorites.
This.
Speaking of the Hawkeyes, 5 of the last 7 Minnesota-Iowa games have gone under, seeing 23 points scored in last season’s matchup. The Hawkeyes have also won the previous eight games, covering in all but two of them (push in 2017).
Pac 12 After Dark
Through the first seven weeks, underdogs are 7-10 ATS and have been outscored 617-359 in Pac 12 After Dark games. There are two games kicking off at 10:30 PM ET on Saturday: #25 UCLA (-17) at Stanford and Arizona State at #5 Washington (-27.5).
#14 Utah at #18 USC
Speaking of the Pac 12, Utah has won three straight against the Trojans with two out of the three being by multiple scores. USC is currently 6.5-point favorites at The Coliseum this Saturday.
Mountain West Front Runner Curse?
The newest Mountain West conference favorite has lost in back-to-back weeks.
Oct. 7: Fresno State (5-0) lost at Wyoming, 24-19 (+210 conference favorites entering the game)
Oct. 14: Wyoming (5-1) lost at Air Force, 34-27 (+250 conference favorites entering the game)
The undefeated #22 Air Force Falcons (-120 favorites) play Navy on Saturday and are currently 10.5-point favorites. Navy has won 4 out of the last 5 at home vs Air Force and is one of four Power Five teams with the most wins as double-digit underdogs (4) since 2021. The Falcons will also be without QB Zac Larrier for several weeks due to a knee injury.
How Bout Them Rebels!
UNLV is 6-1 on the season, which is their best start since 1984 when the Rebels finished that season 11-2. They’re also 6-0 ATS this season.
Speaking of which…
Here are your 2023 Gambling Sweethearts halfway through the season:
The Big Game
This is just the second time in Ryan Day’s tenure at Ohio State that the Buckeyes will play a regular season game with a spread of six points or fewer. The first time came just four weeks ago when OSU took out Notre Dame 17-14 on the road as 3.5-point favorites. Ohio State is currently a 4.5-point favorite at home against James Franklin’s Nittany Lions.