by It has officially been 2,575 days since head coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions defeated a top-10 opponent. That day, of course, came during the dramatic white out win over then-#2 Ohio State.
But ever since that epic night in Happy Valley, it seems as if Penn State has clung onto that program-altering win for quite a while. Seven years to be exact.
Since that very night, the Nittany Lions have lost 11 straight regular season games vs top-10 opponents. Getting over the hump has been a constant struggle for Franklin. However, a golden opportunity awaits for the tenth-year coach tomorrow afternoon to fully regain the confidence and trust of the Penn State faithful, and to put his team right back in the CFP picture.
So based on what I’ve just said, why is the 4.5-point spread so slim?
One might think that PSU currently being just 4.5-point dogs is a bit fishy and clearly sides with the Nittany Lions, but recent history has told us otherwise. In the two home games since that 2016 OSU game where PSU was less than a touchdown underdog, the Nittany Lions lost by four (21-17 to Michigan in 2017) and one (27-26 at Ohio State in 2017). So, make of that what you will.
Aside from recent trends and Vegas lines, let’s quickly break down the keys to victory for Penn State.
Why They Can Win
For starters, let’s clear the air and mention where Michigan currently is at mentally as a program. The whole Connor Stalions scandal is obviously a huge distraction for the Wolverines’ program and could interfere with their focus entering what is undoubtedly their biggest game of the season so far. Also, while Michigan has been utterly dominant against the inferior opponents on its schedule, the Wolverines haven’t been tested one bit. A true road game in arguably the most hostile environment in the sport is going to prove how legit Jim Harbaugh’s team really is. Penn State has the perfect chance to expose any fraudulence in front of 100,000+ of its own.
In terms of X’s and O’s on the field, Penn State needs to show more reliability in its top playmakers and open up more in the play calling department; show some explosiveness and don’t depend on long, time-consuming drives to win you the game. Drew Allar is also more experienced and seems more poised as a passer. Ever since that ugly offensive 20-12 loss at Ohio State, which is never easy for a freshman making his first true road start, Allar has been superb, completing nearly 70% of his throws and throwing for 450 yards, seven touchdowns, and just one pick.
Lastly, the defense needs to continue playing at an elite level. Penn State boasts the second-best total defense in the country and is likely to get a healthy Chop Robinson back in the trenches tomorrow, which is crucial. Michigan has not been as explosive offensively as it was in 2022 and is less run-heavy, so stacking the box and forcing JJ McCarthy win the game with his arm will more than likely be the game plan. There will be moments in this game where PSU’s offense struggles to find any momentum, so consistently shutting down that Wolverine offense will be a big reason if they can manifest an upset.
Why They Can Lose
Rather than just regurgitating the opposite of what I just explained above, there are several key reasons why Michigan enters the game as the favorite. One of this team’s biggest reasons for losing huge, meaningful games over the past few seasons, including the TCU semifinal last year, was being unable to prevent explosive plays. Good news for Michigan: Penn State struggles to produce them. The Nittany Lions are ranked 85th in the FBS with just 5.0 yards per play and continue to rarely break open any huge plays downfield. This was a big reason why PSU lost to Ohio State, who led the country in explosive play rate on defense at the time (Michigan is ranked top-5 in the same category).
To circle back to Allar and the Nittany Lion passing game, PSU has been underwhelming throwing the football to say the least. While Allar has looked solid over the past two games, this unit is currently ranked 76th in the nation in passing offense (100th in 6.4 yards per pass) and doesn’t have a true perimeter threat by anyone not named KeAndre Lambert-Smith. The Wolverines have been sensational defending the pass this season, leading the country in opponent pass yards/per game and turnovers enforced. All-American caliber CB Will Johnson will be glued to Lambert-Smith all game, so who is the secondary option that can blow things open for this PSU offense?
Finally, you still have to wonder whether or not Franklin can win the big one.
Regardless of what unravels tomorrow afternoon, this game should be a physical, defensive slugfest and an overall exciting top-10 showdown. I also can’t wait to watch this game from multiple angles on ESPN Gamecast StallionsCast!
Let me know what you all think about this game in the comments below.