by Losing the first two games of an NFL season is far from an ideal start, but what is this year’s ultimate consolation prize? Caleb Williams, “The Next Patrick Mahomes.” To be clear, I don’t think the Vikings will lose enough games to land the first pick, at least without a trade, but let’s explore this hypothetical situation as a fun little thought experiment.
To some fan bases, making the playoffs is an expectation, while for others it’s cause for celebration. Make no mistake though, making the playoffs should be the goal for all 32 teams in the NFL at the start of each season. Once the playoffs start, it’s a single elimination tournament that any one of the 14 teams can win. You know what they say, “in the NFL, any team can win on any given Sunday.” Four (3 in the case of #1 seeds) straight wins are all it takes to hoist the Lombardi trophy in February. Obviously, winning 3 or 4 straight games against some of the best teams in the league is no easy feat, but no team in NFL history has won a Super Bowl without making the playoffs.
Now for the harsh truth for the Vikings, it’s true that anything can happen in the playoffs, but you have to make the playoffs in the first place. The percentage of teams to start 0-2 that have made the playoffs ranges from about 9-12%, depending on how far back you go and how many playoff berths were available in a given year. Needless to say, the Vikings’ odds of making the playoffs are low, which leads to the question, “should the Vikings tank for Caleb Williams?”
The term “generational talent” is often thrown around during draft season every year. How is it that there’s a generation quarterback, wide receiver, and pass rusher in every NFL draft class? I’m old enough to remember “Tank for Tua” and “Tank for T-Law,” but Caleb Williams has shown the potential to be better than both of them. Every general manager, owner, and head coach in the league would easily trade a horrible season for Patrick Mahomes; Caleb Williams gives teams the opportunity to do exactly that this year.
Okay so the Vikings decide to throw in the towel and tank this season, but how do they accomplish that with this current roster? It would be impossible to convince a 53-man roster to lose NFL games on purpose, and even if you were able to, the league simply would not allow it. The Vikings would probably lose multiple draft picks and miss the chance to draft Caleb Williams, as well as be fined $7 million.
The first step and most important part of throwing away the 2023 season is addressing Kirk Cousins. Cousins is a mid-tier NFL quarterback who will simply win you too many games if you’re a team competing for the league’s worst record. Minnesota’s best bet is to move on from him; trade him to a team that is “a quarterback away from contending.” With Tannehill’s recent struggles and Derrick Henry’s impending decline, Tennessee is a prime candidate to pull off this sort of trade. Ideally, Minnesota would get a first-rounder in return, but with the season underway, a second or third is more realistic. The value the Vikings receive for Cousins isn’t that important, they just need to move him.
Kirk Cousins is now gone, it’s time for Mullens to lead the Vikings to the worst record in the NFL. Mullens has experience leading a team to a bottom 3 record in the league, as he did in 2018 with San Francisco. However, Mullens as the starter may not be enough to secure the worst record in the league on its own. If Minnesota were able to win a game or two before the trade deadline, it may be in their best interest to move Danielle Hunter as well. Hunter is a borderline elite edge rusher that a contending team may be willing to trade for at the deadline to bolster their pass rush. At this point, the Vikings roster is ready to contend for the number one overall pick.
In reality, it is highly unlikely that the Vikings will earn the right to draft Caleb Williams this year. Coming into the year, many viewed Minnesota as a favorite to run away with the NFC North, but an 0-2 start makes even making the playoffs a challenge. I’m not saying Vikings owner Zygi Wilf is ready to throw away the 2023 season, but he’s lying if he says the thought hasn’t crossed his mind. If his team loses one, two, maybe three more games, he might start to genuinely consider doing what he can to make a push for Caleb Williams.