by I’m a little more optimistic about the board this weekend and have six fantastic bets on my card to share with you guys. Let’s get into it.
#25 Kansas State +5.5 at #7 Texas
One of the better matchups of Week 10 goes down in Austin at noon on Saturday. From the Bill Snyder era on, K State has often played spoiler against the top dogs of the Big 12. A Quinn Ewers-less Texas is sketchy, and even though they pounded a bad BYU team last week, the offense lost some explosiveness. A big factor in this game comes down to red zone play, as the Horns rank 120th in red zone efficiency on offense while K-State has the third best red zone defense in America. The Wildcats keep it close and cover, but Texas lives to see another day and keeps its potential playoff hopes intact.
#23 James Madison -5.5 at Georgia State
JMU escaped with a win last weekend against their in-state rival ODU to improve to 8-0, and now they must travel to Atlanta to take on a depleted Georgia State that just got pounded by arch-rival Georgia Southern.
The Dukes are 3-0 ATS in conference road games and will give this Georgia State offense the toughest test they see all season. JMU pulls away late and remains unbeaten.
Virginia Tech +9.5 at #15 Louisville
The Hokies have won three of four while covering in each game and have completely turned their season around. Since that monumental home win over Notre Dame, Cardinal QB Jack Plummer hasn’t been spectacular, posting just 3 TD, 4 INT, and a 54 QBR against Pitt and Duke. Louisville has also tended to play down against inferior opponents this season, winning sloppy games over Indiana and Georgia Tech. If Virginia Tech can slow down the Cardinal rushing attack and put the game in Plummer’s hands they may even win this one outright. 9.5 is too many points, so lay it on the Hokies.
Nebraska -3 at Michigan State
It’s a huge Big Ten sicko game weekend and we start in East Lansing. Don’t look now but the Huskers have won three straight (2-1 ATS in that stretch) and are a game away from bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Sparty is riding a six-game losing streak and currently has the 19th worst offense in the FBS. Nebraska thrives against poor offenses and wins a sloppy one on Saturday (20-10 type of score) to continue climbing out of the Big Ten poverty pit.
Army/Air Force U32.5
Because why not?
#5 Washington at #24 USC O76.5 (Lock)
This is my ballsiest lock of the year so far. Washington has been begging to drop a game over the past two weeks following sluggish performances against ASU and Stanford. The Husky defense has been problematic lately, and what’s remarkable is that they have won three straight games while getting out gained and losing the turnover battle.
On the other hand, USC is still a good football team that has an elite offense and a path to the conference title game. Good news for the Trojans is that Washington struggles getting after the QB (132nd ranked pass rush in FBS), which is something they have struggled mightily against, so they are going to put up points. And we know USC can’t stop anyone defensively either.
This is going to be a QB dual between Williams and Penix, where both teams put up 40+ in a classic west coast shootout. Sprinkling a little on USC +3 isn’t a bad idea either.
