by With UFC 293 upon us, Israel Adesanya (24-2-0) looks to defend his Middleweight title against the unhinged Sean Strickland (27-5-0) in a certified grudge match. Whether it’s during press conferences or over social media, these two have no problem voicing their genuine hatred towards one another.
“The character of Izzy (Israel Adesanya) is so, so low,” states Strickland during his interview with Joe Rogan.
Trash talk aside, the matchup itself is more intriguing than it seems on the surface. With Izzy at -600 odds, he is expected to dominate Strickland inside the octagon. Is this the most likely scenario to unfold on Saturday? Yes. However, Strickland should not be overlooked, as he has plenty of tricks up his sleeve to give the champ some trouble.
The case for Strickland
On his feet, Adesanya is in a class of his own. He has been accepted as one of the greatest strikers the sport has ever seen. That being said, Sean himself is a formidable striker. He works off of a stiff jab and loads of pressure. Add to that a ‘tough as nails’ mentality, and you have a bruiser who isn’t afraid to fight ugly.
Most strikers who have faced Adesanya attempt a technical chess match with their attacks, and are then picked apart from the outside by a much faster and longer Adesanya. If Strickland can put the pressure on Izzy and get his back against the cage, he can make the fight dirty and has a much higher chance of landing the big one.
Something else people tend to overlook with Sean Strickland is that he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He heavily favors striking, but if he’s smart, he may look to take the fight to the ground and search for a submission. Adesanya’s takedown defense is sub-par, and he isn’t known for his off-the-back grappling. If Strickland can get Izzy to the ground, he has a much higher chance of finishing the fight with the belt around his waist.
The case for Adesanya
With Adesanya’s background in kickboxing and his surgical approach to striking, he has the clear advantage in a battle of fisticuffs. His kicks, feints, and counter striking work in unison to confuse and demoralize those that stand across from him. He is taller, has a longer reach, and has championship experience fighting against the biggest names in the division.
Strickland tends to stand tall on his feet, leaving him with low mobility and open to the leg kicks that Izzy loves to throw. Strickland is a one dimensional volume puncher, which gives Izzy plenty of opportunities to counterstrike. Finally, Strickland’s defense is less than stellar, absorbing 4.28 strikes per minute while Adesanya absorbs 2.88 strikes per minute on average.
My Prediction
In the early rounds, I expect a lot of pressure from Sean, where he attempts to walk his prey down while throwing hard jabs to find his distance. I see Izzy combatting that pressure by throwing loads of leg kicks. As Strickland’s legs get torn apart, Izzy will continuously feint to gauge Sean’s reactions.
As the fight progresses, Sean will land some clean punches that get some “ooh’s” and “ah’s” from the crowd. However, I see Sean getting lazy and throwing looping, telegraphed shots for Adesanya to counterstrike. Once Izzy gets comfortable, he’ll start picking up the pace and frequency of his strikes.
Sean may go for a takedown out of desperation, but he seems to be content standing and trading with world class kickboxers, as shown by his performance against Alex Pereira.
In the end, I see Adesanya taking the win in the third round by knockout (more specifically a head kick).