by Week 1 of the college football season taught us a lot, but it also reminds us that is not always safe to overreact to certain games or programs. I began the season with a red-hot 7-1 start and have five more plays to pad in the win column this Saturday. Enjoy.
DUKE AT NORTHWESTERN
Two solid defenses led by defensive-minded coaches will clash against mediocre offenses on a windy Friday night in Evanston, Illinois. There is a reason why this total is so low and continues to drop. Nasty, but gritty bet to kick off the weekend slate.
The play: Under 37
TEXAS AT MICHIGAN
Speaking of reactionary, a ton of people are looking at these two programs in different ways based on their Week 1 performances. Texas spanked Colorado State 52-0 and looked lights out offensively, while the Wolverines looked sloppy on offense and escape with a 30-10 win over Fresno (it was 16-10 in 4Q). Perhaps those early games are a true reflection of each team this season, but I’m not necessarily buying it.
Texas’ wide receiver corps is lethal and Quinn Ewers may very well end up in New York as a Heisman finalist in December, but giving them 7.5 on the road against the reigning national champs in the Big House is disrespectful. People seem to forget how elite this Michigan defense still is, and while the QB situation is still up in the air, the run game is potent and they still have the same philosophy on offense. Texas lost a lot in its defense front, including All-Americans Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat and fantastic d-line coach Bo Davis, so Michigan’s young o-line shouldn’t be too overwhelmed.
I’m not saying Texas is losing this game, but Michigan is going to keep this one close and play wear-and-tear football. Michigan needs to turn the ball over, though. If they do, I like the Wolverines to cover, even with all of the vacancies this offseason.
The play: Michigan +7.5
BOWLING GREEN AT PENN STATE
I should have bet this one on Sunday when the line was lurking around 30.5, but I still trust James “the cover machine” Franklin to back the PSU bettors for the second week in a row. This team looks legit folks.
The play: Penn State -34.5
TENNESSEE VS NC STATE
NC State is one of my preseason darlings as I hammered the Wolfpack win total over 8.5 as one of my most confident plays of the year. However, last week’s vomit-worthy win over Western Carolina raises pessimism and there are a few concerns about this roster.
While I do think Dave Doeren will get NC State to play sharper this week, there is noticeable regression on defense with the loss of Payton Wilson and, quite frankly, do we really know if Grayson McCall can win a big game like this with his arm? On the other hand, Tennessee is very potent offensively with one of the best wide receiver rooms in the nation, and I truly believe QB Nico Iamaleava will be a top-three signal caller in the country by season’s end. This is an ascension game for the Vols and they will pull away late to cover and win by double digits. No disrespect to the Wolfpack, but Tennessee is one of the sneakiest playoff contenders out there right now. In Nico I trust.
The play: Tennessee -7.5
LIBERTY AT NEW MEXICO STATE
NMSU looked awful last weekend against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State, trailing all game until the final three minutes and escaping with a narrow 23-16 win. The Aggies lost everything from last season, including head coach Jerry Kill, OC Tim Beck, and electrifying QB Diego Pavia who put on a show against VT last Saturday. It’s a rebuilding Aggie roster filled with JUCO transfers and a below-average head coach in Tony Sanchez.
On the other hand, Liberty brings back its most important pieces in QB Kaidon Salter, RB Quinton Cooley, and a surefire top-five G5 head coach in Jamey Chadwell. Sure the Flames looked sloppy against Campbell in Week 1, but other teams like Oregon and Michigan slept walked too. NMSU is that bad and Liberty is that much more talented to cover this spread and leave Las Cruces with a dominant win.
The play: Liberty -22.5