by Last year, I gave a preseason win total each day. This year, I’m dropping them all in one single blog. A 5-2 win total record fueled my confidence to drop even more this season, and I love every single one of these. Here are my best college football team win totals of 2024, with the first two being my favorites.
USF Over 7.5 (+105) (Lock)
NC State Over 8.5 (-130)
Oklahoma State Over 7.5 (-130)
I bet the Pokes last season and they didn’t let me down. Mike Gundy is a lightning rod of consistency and elevates his teams the most when they are doubted. Preseason favorites Utah and K-State are getting the most love, but Oklahoma State returns 21 starters, including the reigning Doak Walker Award winner, and were literally in the conference title game a year ago. The offensive line is filled with veteran stardom, Brennan Presley is a speedy mismatch at WR, and Alan Bowman is back for year 7. Defensively, Okie State is better than some people give them credit and it all starts with star edge rusher Collin Oliver, who could end up molding himself into a first-round draft pick when it’s all said and done.
Once the Cowboys get through a brutal mid-season stretch that includes three straight against vs Utah, K-State, and WVU, they are smooth sailing. 10-2 ceiling, 8-4 floor. Too talented and seasoned to disappoint and take a step back in what will be a weaker Big 12 at the top.
Utah Over 9.5 (-150)
Vegas and I both know the Utes are going over. My preseason Big 12 champion (no, I’m not betting that), Utah gets back what they had in 2022 after they won the Pac 12 and marched to a Rose Bowl. Cam Rising returns, as does All-American caliber TE Brant Kuithe. If they get lucky with injuries, they have enough to win 10-11 games in the regular season. Road games at Oklahoma State and UCF present a challenge, but I see a clear path to the Big 12 title game.
Minnesota Over 5.5 (+100)
(Lengthy explanation incoming)
The fact that Minnesota had below-average quarterback play, only averaged 20 PPG, finished -100 YPG in conference play, blew two one-score games and still went 6-7 is impressive in itself.
This year, the Golden Gophers will have a much improved offense and a deep front seven on defense, so I expect some progression all around.
Minnesota signed Walter Payton Award (FCS Heisman) finalist Max Brosmer to be the answer under center and he should instantly bolster last year’s mediocre passing game. The backfield is one of the Big Ten’s best with phenom sophomore Darius Taylor leading the charge in front of talented transfers Marcus Major (Oklahoma) and Sieh Banugra (Ohio). In 2023, Taylor posted 799 rushing yards and 133.2 rush YPG (3rd in program history) in six starts despite missing every other game due to injury. The depth at receiver is questioning, but second-team All-Big Ten performer Daniel Jackson is a terrific playmaker who will ignite the aerial attack. Up front, Minnesota returns four starters, including future early-round NFL Draft pick Aireontae Ersery (LT), to give Minnesota its most experienced unit since 2021.
Defensively, the Golden Gophers feature a veteran bunch in the front seven, including five returning linebackers and their top-two sack leaders from a year ago. The secondary has talent too as nickelback Jack Henderson (led team in tackles in 2023) and All-Big Ten cornerback Justin Walley will step in and try to replicate the remarkable 2023 season that second-round pick Tyler Nubin (S) had in Minneapolis.
So, based on my optimism, why is the total so low? The schedule. Minnesota has the 7th toughest schedule in the country — one that includes road trips to Michigan, UCLA, and Wisconsin, as well as home games against Iowa, USC, and Penn State. In all likelihood, Fleck and the Gophers may be an underdog as many as seven times this season.
But on the bright side…
Games significantly favored: vs Rhode Island, vs Nevada
Toss-ups: vs North Carolina (opener), at UCLA, vs Maryland, at Illinois, at Rutgers
They should be able to win at least five of those games barring any big misfortunes, such as injuries.
Despite a down year in 2023, Minnesota was smooth sailing after going 9-4 in 2021 and 2022. The schedule is unfriendly, but with the veteran pieces returning on offense, the instant improvement in QB play, and the depth on defense, there’s enough for me to believe that this may just be Fleck’s most complete team yet.
Minnesota will return to a bowl and hit the team total over. Row the dang boat.
Tennessee Over 8.5 (-160)
I believe in Nico.
Duke Under 5.5 (-165)
The Manny Diaz hire may work out in the long-term, but it will be a longgggg season for the Blue Devils this fall. This team does not have the depth to rattle off conference wins late in the season and Duke will most likely be more than a touchdown underdog in five of its last six games. Dual-threat Texas transfer Maalik Murphy comes in at quarterback, but will be operating behind a very inexperienced offensive line — something he has not been used to in his college career. The Blue Devils lost a plethora of talent and are essentially in rebuild mode under a new head coach. This could end up being the worst team in the ACC.
UCLA Under 5.5 (-155)
There are a few underrated factors that play into performance and one of them is travel. The Bruins have the worst of it out of every school in the country in 2024. Not even that, but UCLA is under new leadership with head coach DeShaun Foster, lost the heart of its elite defense with DE Laiatu Latu (Colts 1st round pick) and coordinator D’Anton Lynn (USC), and have a brutal three-game swing at LSU, vs Oregon, and at PSU. After that they host a physical Minnesota team before traveling way far back east to take on Rutgers. Next, there’s a trip to Nebraska, who could be quite good, six days before Iowa comes to town. 5-7 is a perfect ceiling for this rebuilding Big Ten newcomer.
NATIONAL CHAMPION: GEORGIA (+300)
Don’t bet against Kirby Smart. I could end my argument right there if I wanted to, but I digress.
Georgia has the same amount of national championships as it does losses the last three years (42-2). The Bulldogs return 16 starters and have depth at just about every position. Carson Beck could be the best quarterback in America, the backfield and receivers are revamped and loaded, and they are going to be dominant in the trenches because, well, it’s Georgia. The Bulldogs do open with Clemson before road trips to Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, but I still don’t see a world where this teams loses more than once in the regular season. Georgia is the most complete team in college football and will be a top-four team in the country this fall. They have the depth built to sustain a rugged playoff slate and are so multi-dimensional at every position. Kirby reclaims his crown and Georgia wins another natty.
Good luck to your teams this fall and happy betting!
