by Three weeks remain in the college football season before bowling commences and the Group of Five gets its annual opportunity to earn its flowers and win a coveted NY6 game.
With the Mountain West cannibalising itself in recent weeks and James Madison being wrongfully ineligible, the Group of Five race has boiled down to about 3-5 teams at this point. Let’s break it down.
Front runner: #23 Tulane
While they have looked unimpressive and are squeaking by each week (1-6 ATS in previous seven), the Green Wave are still the top candidate heading into Week 12. Nail-biting wins over Tulsa and East Carolina in back-to-back games along with three of its top four pass catchers being banged up gives reason for doubt, but Tulane is simply finding ways to win. Willie Fritz’s team fully controls their own destiny to return to a NY6.
Would like a word: Liberty
Liberty represents arguably the weakest conference in the country, but that isn’t stopping Jamey Chadwell’s Flames from being a legitimate NY6 contender. LU is a perfect 10-0 on the year and are led by Maxwell Award semifinalist QB Kaidon Salter. However, they are on thin ice in this race because one loss will completely eliminate them from contention. The good news is that they only have two more opponents: 3-7 UTEP and an improved New Mexico State for the conference title. If Liberty wins out and Tulane drops a game, look who’s in.
Right there with ‘em: Toledo
MACtion has a serious NY6-caliber team this season in Toledo. The 9-1 Rockets needed some help to reach this point as both Air Force and Fresno State choked this past weekend with embarrassing road losses to inferior opponents, yet here we are. It’s still sort of a long shot for Toledo as it needs both of the teams listed above to lose a game, plus they may get screwed over by the CFP committee if a two-loss AAC team is in over them (more on that later), but let’s stay optimistic shall we!
In the hunt: Memphis and SMU
A lot of it will be contingent upon either Liberty dropping a game or the CFP committee showing some bias, but either one of these AAC schools has a chance to play in a big-time bowl game. One will most likely make the conference title game and both have good shots to knock off a somewhat flawed Tulane squad.
Long shots: Troy, Mountain West champ, UTSA
Keep an eye on these three programs as they have opportunities to shake things up and potentially get to the promise land when it’s all said and done.
Troy needs a ton of help, but has arguably the best strength of schedule out of the G5 contenders (losses to K-State and JMU) and may get the chance to upset the Dukes in the Sun Belt title game IF the conference allows them to compete in it.
Either Fresno State, Air Force, or UNLV will most likely win the Mountain West, and Brady Hoke’s Rebels have the best chance to reach a NY6 with a great loss to #1 Michigan and a potential opportunity to avenge their loss to Fresno in the title game.
UTSA needs a miracle but it is still mathematically possible for them to make a NY6. The 7-3 Roadrunners’ three losses were against non-conference opponents, plus they can beat AAC favorite Tulane in two weeks and either SMU or Memphis in the conference title. That would also be UTSA’s third-straight conference championship (two in C-USA, first in AAC) with two ranked wins on the year and an undefeated conference record. It’s slim but there’s a chance.
While it will be a fun race over the next few weeks, I believe that the American conference has the edge when it comes to making a NY6. The committee is telling us this by having Tulane as the only ranked G5 team so far, plus the Green Wave, Memphis and SMU all have losses against either Power Five schools or each other and have better strength of schedules. But still, don’t lose hope if you’re a fan of any of the teams listed above!