by With the regular season winding down, it’s time to lock and load, and continue piling up some wins. Here are four plays on my card that I absolutely adore and am hammering. Let’s get into it.
Duke at #24 North Carolina -14
I hate to fade the Blue Devils, who have been a cool story all season long, but no Riley Leonard makes me seriously question whether or not they will be able to keep up against their high-scoring arch rival on the road. Yes, Mike Elko’s defense has been rock solid up to this point, but you can only rely on your defense to keep you in it for so long through 60 minutes.
It’s also UNC’s senior day, meaning Drake Maye’s final home game wearing the Carolina blue, plus the Tar Heels are still fighting for an ACC title game bid. UNC beats down on a banged up Duke to earn a statement win in Chapel Hill.
Miami (FL) at #4 Florida State -14.5
The Canes are one play call, or taken knee, away from this most likely being a pivotal ranked-vs-ranked matchup with major ACC title game implications for both teams. These two absolutely hate each other and while Miami has a golden opportunity to seriously dampen its archenemy’s playoff hopes, I just don’t see it happening. Following a sloppy game at Pitt last week, I think Norvell will have his guys on full alert and ready to roll, especially for a game that they’ve had circled on their calendar since Spring.
A key factor to pay attention to in this one is turnovers as Miami ranks 106th in the FBS in turnover margin/game while Florida State ranks 13th. I’m predicting shades of Duke-FSU here: a close two-to-three quarters, but the Noles pull away late and tuck Miami to bed.
Rutgers at #22 Iowa U28.5
You know what to do.
Old Dominion +13.5 at Liberty (Lock)
Both of these teams have been very solid ATS this season (ODU is 6-3 and Liberty is 7-2), but their paths up to this point are quite the opposite.
Despite being 4-5, Old Dominion has shown a lot of fight with a three-point loss against unbeaten JMU, as well as one-score losses to Coastal, Marshall and Wake Forest. The Monarchs are also still vying for a bowl bid and present the best rush defense the Flames will see so far this season.
As for 9-0 Liberty, have they really played anyone? For starters, the Flames have the 2nd easiest schedule in the FBS. They also haven’t been all that dominant and managed to escape a few games against flat-out bad teams, including a 21-16 home win over 1-8 Sam Houston State.
An outright Old Dominion upset is a tall task, but I fully expect this Fun Belt squad to take this one down to the wire.
