October 4, 2024

CFB Week 11 Nerd Nuggets

A few interesting notes and trends for Week 11 in college football. Let’s nerd out!

MACtion Update

Underdogs are 3-6 straight up and 3-6 ATS in MACtion weekday games so far this season.

Live Bet Louisville

Louisville has only lost the coin toss once this season, which was against Pitt… their only loss of the year.

Kings of Texas?

Ever since joining the Big 12 back in 2012, TCU is 8-3 against Texas.

Tobacco Road Sweep

With a win over #24 UNC on Saturday, Duke can clean sweep the Tobacco Road rivalry for the first time since 2013. The Blue Devils are also looking to snap a four-game losing streak against their arch rival.

Post-LSU Trends

Since Nick Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa, the Tide are 9-7 ATS in games the week after playing LSU. Alabama failed to cover at Ole Miss as 10.5-point favorites last season — one week after falling to LSU 32-31 in OT. 

Coastal would be undefeated ATS IF…

Coastal Carolina is 7-0 ATS against non-Georgia schools this season. The Chants have failed to cover just twice this year: (-4.5) vs Georgia State and (+6.5) at Georgia Southern in back-to-back weeks.

This.

In the past three seasons, FBS teams are 4-49 when having less than 170 total yards of offense… Iowa won all four of those games.

Huge Mountain Best Showdown

Friday night marks the first time since 1981 that both Wyoming (6-3) and UNLV (7-2) are playing each other with winning records. The Cowboys, who are 5.5-point dogs, lead the all-time series 14-11.

Fade No. 1

Dating back to 2022, teams ranked #1 are 3-12-1 ATS vs unranked teams (1-6-1 in 2023). #1 Ohio State is 31.5-point favorites vs Michigan State this weekend and failed to cover at Rutgers last week.

Speaking of the Buckeyes…

Aside from the Luke Fickell season in 2011, Ohio State hasn’t been worse than 7-1 in the Big Ten since 2004.

Trojan Trouble

Since 2014, USC has been an underdog 28 times. The Trojans have pulled just three upsets — two vs. Utah and the other at undefeated and eventual CFP semifinalist Washington in 2016. (USC is +14.5 at #6 Oregon this Saturday)